FACC members and guests of Coface gathered on Thursday, May 14 for the 2009 Coface Country Risk Seminar at the CUNY Graduate Center. Michael Ferrante, President, Coface North America, opened the meeting by offering welcome remarks.

Program Moderator Leila Butt, Senior Editor/Economist & Deputy Manager, Country Risk Services, Economist Intelligence Unit, began with a global overview. Stating that economic conditions remain “dire” in most regions, she specified that economies are still falling, many sectors are still weak, and unemployment will remain high through 2010. She also provided remarks on the state of the financial markets, including bank writedowns and the credit crunch, stating that “they have eased but they are stressed.”

Turning to Latin America, Stuart Bergman, Director, Economic Analysis & Forecasting, Export Development Canada, discussed the impact of the global financial crisis on this region. Mr. Bergman suggested that the crisis has caused slower growth, weakening currencies, weakened fiscal accounts and limited access to external capital. He selected three countries with very different financial markets to illustrate his point: Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela. While Latin America is better prepared to face this crisis than in the past, Mr. Bergman stated that the impact of this crisis on business in the region is evident, including a weak import demand, tighter credit conditions, and heightened uncertainty.

Joyce Chang, Managing Director & Global Head, Emerging Markets Research, JPMorgan, discussed the outlook for emerging Asia. Given a slower growth, and the global financial crisis increasingly affecting the region, she offered an overview of financial policies in the region. She also discussed the rising unemployment facing Asia.

The Director of Global Investment Strategies at Van Kampen Investments, Richard Golod, provided the North American outlook. Offering a candid assessment, Mr. Golod discussed government spending, corporate spending, consumer spending and overseas demand. He also addressed the numerous issues currently plaguing the U.S. economy, including the debt to income ratio, deflation, the 15% decline in housing values, an unemployment rate that will hit 10%, an increased rate of underemployment, and an unsustainable short-term consumer spending rate. Concluding that a form of socialism “is emerging here”, Mr. Golod suggested that the spending habits of the population will change. Over the next five years, he expects that people will save more and spend less, reflecting the slow growth environment in the U.S.

Coface Chief Economist Yves Zlotowski provided remarks on Coface country and sector ratings. He discussed the ongoing credit crisis, and in particular the “major shock” that occurred between 2007 and 2009. Focusing on the U.S., the UK, Spain, Ireland and Iceland, he analyzed the reasons behind the crisis and its propagation, and discussed its impact on external trade, the credit crunch, capital overflow, exchange rates and raw material prices.

A dynamic question-and-answer session with the above experts concluded the seminar. Guests then gathered for networking and a cocktail reception.